Martin Vousden’s crystal ball for 2012

Thought for the Day
If your parents didn’t have any children, the chances are that you won’t either

Early skirmishes
Those of you old enough to remember (and that’s a fast dwindling group) or, more likely, with some knowledge of 20th century history, will know that in the first six months after we opened hostilities with Germany in 1939 there was a period called the Phoney War. After the drama of announcing our intention to take on the Hun, nothing much happened but there remained a sense of anticipation. A stupid analogy, I know, but the start of a new golf season always reminds me of those events of more than 70 years ago because, despite all the expectations and hopes we are presented with – well, not very much. On the European Tour we have a few tournaments in South Africa, what used to be called the Sunshine Tour but, with the greatest respect, the fields are not representative of the best players in the world. Of course South Africa has some fine golfers but it does not have great strength in depth, which is why people like Louis Ooosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel (and before them Retief Goosen and Ernie Els) tend to become serial winners on home turf. And the US Tour, meanwhile, takes itself to Hawaii for a few weeks during which the players have a wonderful time, I’m sure, but the quality of opposition they face (and the courses over which they play), while worthy, is not the stiffest competition they will meet during the season.


You will search the leaderboards in vain for names like Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer and Adam Scott – the top-five in the world as I write, and there is equally no trace of lower-ranked but marquee names such as Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell or Sergio Garcia. On the other side of the Atlantic they know that things don’t really get going until the Tour hits the US mainland, and over here it’s the Middle East desert swing that brings out the big guns. In the meantime, we at least have some pro golf to watch after the Christmas and New Year shutdown but it’s not quite the same.

Worrying trend?
And although the world’s two main golf Tours have started, in a fashion, neither the European Senior Tour, nor the LPGA Tour, has yet published their 2012 schedule, which must be worrying, to say the least. The Ladies European Tour kicks off with the Gold Coast RACV Australian Ladies Masters; from February 2-5 but that’s a co-sanctioned event, as are the few immediately following, and the LET doesn’t really get going until March 22 with the Lalla Meryem Cup in Morocco. The Tour’s website does say there is a ‘potential event’ on March 1-4 but that just means that there’s still a big hole in the schedule.
There is no doubt feverish activity going on right now to attract more sponsors and pad out what is looking like a rather thin calendar of events but to be still looking to fill a gap that is only eight weeks away sends out a less than positive message.

Crystal-ball gazing
It is inevitable at this time of year to turn our thoughts to the season ahead, especially as it’s a Ryder Cup year, and try to imagine what the next 12 months will bring to us golfers. So let’s start with Mr Ryder’s biennial competition, which it pains me to say, I think will be won by team USA. In the post-Celtic Manor euphoria of a dramatic win, we can perhaps forget just how close it was in 2010 and how reliant we were on Graeme McDowell’s intestinal fortitude coming down the stretch, and a crucial mistake by his opponent. The reality is that the competition has become so close and competitive that home advantage is more and more becoming the pivotal factor.

In women’s golf, Yani Tseng will continue to dominate – she’s too good, too young for the rest – and Lexi Thompson, an astonishingly mature teenager who pounds the ball for miles, will catch the imagination of fans everywhere, and win in the process.

Sadly I think that Phil Mickelson’s decline will continue and that Luke Donald will come nowhere near emulating his exploits of 2011, simply because they were so remarkable that they cannot be sustained. Tiger will win again and be in the frame for at least a couple of majors but I don’t think he will win one, although if he is to threaten Jack’s record (and winning those last four to tie the great man will be as difficult as winning the first 14) he needs to strike soon.

As for Lee Westwood, to get that major bogey off his back he just needs one of the big four events to coincide with the week in which his putter behaves itself and if he doesn’t lift a major in 2012, I fear he never will.

Quote of the Week
The great anxiety of the moderate player when making his stroke is to get the ball properly lofted, and in some obstinate cases it seems to take several seasons of experience to convince him completely that the club has been specifically made for the purpose and, if fairly used, is quite accurate
Harry Vardon

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